Just two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant this season, while the victories have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
